Before you decide to wait for lower rates...
I've been doing mortgages for more than 35 years, and buyers tend to focus on the number they can see most easily: the interest rate. We hear it all the time: "Rates are too high. We're going to wait." That's a reasonable thing to consider, so here's a simple example.
A $500,000 home, 20% down ($100,000), $400,000 loan, 30-year fixed:
- Buy today at 7.00%: about $2,661/month in principal and interest
- If rates fall to 6.50%: about $2,528/month
- Difference: about $133/month, or roughly $1,600 a year
That's real money, but it assumes the price of the home stays the same. If the same home costs about 5% more by the time rates drop (roughly $525,000), your payment at 6.50% would be about the same as buying today at 7.00%. Even if the price rises only 4%, most of the savings disappear, and you'd need about $4,000 more for the down payment.
*Illustration only, not a prediction of future rates or home prices. Price increases of 4% to 5% are assumptions for illustration. Taxes, insurance and HOA not included.
What waiting can cost you:
- Rent, and the equity you're not building, for every month you wait
- A higher price or a smaller selection if the market moves against you
- Rates that don't fall, or that rise instead
What buying now can cost you:
- The higher payment until rates fall
- Refinance closing costs, often around 1.5% of the loan amount
- No guarantee you'll qualify for or benefit from a future refinance
Refinancing is not a plan, it's a possibility. Many buyers who counted on refinancing after 2024 are still waiting for rates to drop enough to make it worth it. I wouldn't count on it when deciding what payment you're comfortable with today. And keep in mind, even a 1/2% lower rate on a refi takes almost 4 years to break even.
I've watched buyers wait for the perfect market, and I've watched buyers make smart purchases in imperfect ones. The difference was understanding the numbers.
If you're weighing buying now against waiting, let's run the scenarios together:
This information is courtesy of:
Ken Byrne - Alcova Mortgage
Branch Partner
NMLS ID#187129




